Nobody voted for the number.
A government formula is overriding local democracy, ignoring physical reality, and reshaping rural England. Nobody voted for any of it. This is how it works.
A short reading of the December formula, before the noise.
The number came down in December, on a Friday, and nobody argued with it until March. It is not a target in any ordinary sense; it is a mandatory annual delivery produced by a formula which takes two inputs and a cap, then reports a third. The inputs are household projections and the local affordability ratio. The cap was the part that used to hold. It no longer does. What this means, in practice, is that a district with a 2024 housing number of 420 now has a 2026 housing number of 1,036 — a rise of 147 per cent, announced by arithmetic, unreferenced to any capacity test. The water company did not consult. The highway authority did not consult. The electricity network did not consult. The formula did not ask.
Continue reading — 13 min →How land gets its value, and who keeps it.
The arithmetic underneath the English housing crisis.
A unanimous refusal, overturned by the tilted balance.
Refused by the councillors, the officers and the council's own evidence, then granted outline permission for up to 54 homes at appeal, where the tilted balance set the local plan aside.
The neighbourhood plan, and what it can actually do.
The most democratic tool in the planning system, and the one with the least power when the system is under pressure.
Ground Level is a professional editorial platform. Investigative, data-driven, written by industry professionals. Interrogating Britain's planning and economics systems driving housing and infrastructure.
What the standard method is, and what it is not. A formula, a set of inputs, and a cap. Three things, in order.
02The five-year supply, the tilted balance, and why your council can't say no. The mechanism that hands control to developers when a council falls behind.
03What "affordable" actually means, and what it costs. The gap between what the planning system calls affordable and what a local worker can pay.
04Viability, density, and why every estate looks the same. The product range, the economics behind it, and a planning system that cannot demand anything better.
05The Local Plan, and why most of England does not have one. The document that decides where houses go, how it gets made, and what happens without it.
06Section 106 and the Community Infrastructure Levy. Two mechanisms for making developers pay for what development needs, and why both are under strain.
07The infrastructure that doesn't exist yet. How water, roads, schools, and GP surgeries are supposed to arrive alongside new housing, and why they don't.
08The neighbourhood plan, and what it can actually do. The most democratic tool in the planning system, and the one with the least power when the system is under pressure.
09How land gets its value, and who keeps it. The arithmetic underneath the English housing crisis.
Three rural districts. Three targets set by formula. None can demonstrate a five-year housing land supply. The methodology doesn't ask whether the land exists.
Coming next
The Green Belt was drawn in 1955. The grey belt was invented last year.
Green BeltYour planning application goes to committee. Here's what actually happens in that room.
ProcessThe developer appeals. An inspector you've never met decides. How that works.
AppealsWhat the Future Homes Standard costs, and who pays for it.
DesignBritain built 300,000 council homes a year. Then it stopped.
HistoryThe generation that holds 75% of housing equity, and can't move.
Generational£1.7 trillion in mortgage debt. The number that explains everything.
Finance2,000 people. That was the UK's natural population growth last year.
DemographicsThe state decides what you can build, where, and at what price. Is that the free market?
PoliticsThe first generation that may never own a home. What do they do instead.
Gen ZYou will own nothing. Who said it, who funds it, and what it means for housing.
GlobalBiodiversity net gain, nutrient neutrality, and the field that used to be a habitat.
EcologyGet the dispatch.
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