On 19 October Rightmove published its house price index for October. The property website compiles it from the asking prices of homes listed through more than 16,000 estate agency branches, and reports alongside it what its own daily data shows about buyers and sellers. This month the release made a comparison that reaches back 12 years. "The total number of homes available for sale remains at its highest level for this time of year since 2014."
The same section of the release shows how that happens. New listings coming to market were 3% higher than a year earlier. The number of new potential buyers contacting agents was 9% lower, and sales agreed were 8% lower. More homes are arriving and fewer are leaving. Rightmove does not publish how many homes are for sale, only the comparison.
Rightmove called the 8% fall "evidence of the more challenging market conditions this year, though broadly in line with the year to date". It also said that sales activity "has so far shown resilience, with deals still being done for the right properties at the right price".
Each link behind that sentence has its own published figure: what estate agents report, what a mortgage costs, how many mortgages were approved and what lenders say about demand. This piece takes them in turn, then follows them to the housebuilders, where the market meets the planning system. All the figures were published before the Budget on 28 October, which we cover separately.
What estate agents report.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) asks estate agents and surveyors each month whether activity in their area rose or fell. It publishes the answer as a net balance: the share reporting a rise minus the share reporting a fall. Its September survey, published on 8 October, points the same way as Rightmove.
New buyer enquiries came in at -22%, from -18% in August. Agreed sales were -18%, from -16%. New instructions, which are homes put up for sale through an agent, were +6%. RICS called that "the first positive reading since mid-2025". The balance for prices was -32%, from -28%.
RICS put the change down to interest rate expectations.
A renewed rise in interest rate expectations has created a fresh headwind for the housing market, with buyers becoming a little more cautious and sales activity losing some momentum this month.Tarrant Parsons, Head of Market Research and Analysis, RICS · Ground Level, 8 October 2026
Its release also gives the other side. The enquiries balance remained "significantly stronger than the recent low of -41%, recorded six months ago". Parsons added that the results "do not point to any significant shift in direction".
Prices have barely moved on the main measures, though each measures something different. Rightmove's figure is the asking price of homes newly listed: £371,015 in October, 0.1% lower than a year earlier. Nationwide's is based on its own mortgage approvals. It was up 0.8% on the year in September, which Nationwide called "the weakest rate of growth since December 2025". The official index from the Office for National Statistics and HM Land Registry uses completed sales, so it runs further behind. It gave £273,037 for August, up 0.9%.
Bank Rate has not moved since December.
The Bank of England cut Bank Rate to 3.75% on 18 December 2025 and has held it there since. At the September meeting the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6 to 3 to hold. The three in the minority voted for a rise to 4%.
Mortgage rates moved anyway. The Bank publishes a monthly average of the rates lenders quote. For a two-year fixed mortgage at 75% loan to value, which means borrowing three quarters of the price, it was 3.93% in January and 3.97% in February. It was 4.45% in March and 5.14% in April. In September it was 5.13%.
The September minutes explain the gap. There had been "full and fast pass-through from increases in short-term OIS rates to key lending rates faced by UK households and businesses". OIS rates, from overnight index swaps, are a market measure of where Bank Rate is expected to be over the months and years ahead. The minutes describe lending rates following those market rates, which is how a fixed mortgage can rise while Bank Rate stands still. The minutes tie the rise to the conflict in the Middle East: lending rates "had remained materially higher than prior to the conflict". UK inflation was 3.1% in August.
What that does to a buyer can be worked out. Rightmove's average asking price for a typical first-time buyer home in October was £225,627. With a 10% deposit, the loan is about £203,000. The Bank's average two-year fix at 90% loan to value was 4.36% in January and 5.37% in September. On a 25-year repayment mortgage, by our arithmetic, the monthly payment rises from about £1,113 to about £1,231. That is £119 a month more, or about £1,420 a year. Put the other way, the payment that covered £203,000 in January covered about £183,500 in September.
The rapid rise in mortgage rates is really beginning to hit buyers' budgets.Colleen Babcock, property expert, Rightmove · Ground Level, 19 October 2026
The Bank's count of mortgages approved for house purchase held up until April, then fell. Seasonally adjusted, there were 60,208 approvals in January, 65,021 in April and 56,330 in May. In August there were 54,918, which is 16% fewer than in August 2025.
Fewer applied, and fewer were approved.
An approval count cannot say why it fell. Fewer people may be applying, or lenders may be turning down more of those who do. The Bank publishes approvals but not applications or refusals, so its count cannot separate the two.
The Bank does ask lenders. Its Credit Conditions Survey, published on 8 October, covers the three months to the end of August. Lenders say whether demand, the credit they make available and the share of applications they approve went up or down. The Bank weights each answer by the lender's share of the market and reports a balance between -100 and +100.
| Lenders' answer | Three months to end of August 2026 | Three months to end of May 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Demand for loans to buy a home | -37.1 | +14.9 |
| Share of household loan applications approved | -10.5 | -8.0 |
| Credit scoring criteria (positive means looser) | +5.3 | -1.6 |
| Secured credit available to households | -15.5 | +2.6 |
| Available to borrowers above 75% loan to value | -19.9 | -2.2 |
| Available to borrowers at 75% or below | -12.6 | -9.9 |
Source: Bank of England, Credit Conditions Survey 2026 Q3, 8 October 2026, annex. The survey ran from 17 August to 4 September 2026. A positive balance means higher demand, more credit available or looser terms.
Both balances are negative, and the demand balance is the weaker by a wide margin. At -37.1 it is the weakest since the three months to August 2023. The approval balance of -10.5 is the second fall in a row. It is small against the deepest falls in the series, such as -43.5 at the end of 2008, and against -30.2 in 2023.
On this evidence it is both. The two balances answer different questions, and the survey does not turn either into a number of mortgages, so it cannot say how much of the fall in approvals each explains.
Lenders also said their scoring criteria had loosened slightly. The survey does not say why a smaller share of applications was approved anyway. One explanation fits the figures above. The Financial Conduct Authority's rules require a lender to assess whether a borrower "will be able to pay the sums due" before it lends (MCOB 11.6.2R). At a higher rate the same income covers a smaller loan, as the arithmetic above shows, and that alone would reduce approvals with no change to the criteria.
Lenders cut back most for buyers with small deposits. The credit available to people borrowing more than 75% of the price fell further than for those borrowing less. Asked what had reduced availability overall, lenders gave their market share objectives (-14.1) the most weight, followed by the economic outlook (-7.5).
They expect the autumn to be better. For the three months to the end of November, lenders expected demand to rise (+9.8) and the credit they offer to rise (+5.1). Default rates on mortgages fell slightly over the summer.
New homes are built at the pace they sell.
The figures so far cover the whole market, most of it existing homes. They reach the planning system through new homes. We set out in our piece on Your First Home why a housebuilder paces a site to the rate it can sell without cutting prices. Sir Oliver Letwin's review of build-out in 2018 and the Competition and Markets Authority's market study in 2024 both found it.
Housebuilders report that rate as net private sales, or reservations, per sales outlet per week. An outlet is a site with homes on sale. The latest statements from four housebuilders cover the summer. Counting individual buyers only, each of the three that gives a comparison was below the same weeks of 2025.
| Builder | Period in 2026 | Sales or reservations per outlet per week | Same period of 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Wimpey | 4 weeks to 26 July, excluding bulk deals | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| Persimmon | 5 weeks from 30 June, excluding bulk deals | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| Barratt Redrow | 29 June to 6 September, excluding private rented and other multi-unit sales | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| Vistry | The summer months, open market sales only, exact weeks not given | 0.3 | Not given |
Sources: Taylor Wimpey, half year results, 31 July 2026; Persimmon, half year results, 6 August 2026; Barratt Redrow, full year results, 16 September 2026; Vistry, half year results, 24 September 2026.
Bulk deals and multi-unit sales are blocks of homes sold together, for example to a rental investor. They are left out of the table so that each figure counts individual buyers. Counting them changes the picture for two builders. Including them, Barratt Redrow's rate was 0.62 against 0.55, and Persimmon's was 0.72 against 0.68. Taylor Wimpey's was 0.55 against 0.59.
Taylor Wimpey said "affordability constraints and increased geopolitical uncertainty impacted customer sentiment and behaviour". It also said that "underlying customer demand continues to be good", while "conversion is taking longer and buyers remain highly price conscious". Barratt Redrow said its lower rate was "evidencing the continuing affordability challenges faced by potential homebuyers". Berkeley, whose statement gives no rate, said on 11 September that "customers without an immediate need to move and readily available liquidity remain more cautious to commit".
Barratt Redrow also cut its forecast. It now expects 17,500 to 17,900 completions in its current financial year, down from 17,700 to 18,200, "reflecting continued planning delays and a consequent reduction to expected sales outlet openings". The builder puts that cut down to the planning system. Councils have pointed the other way. In March the Local Councils Network published a survey of 62 of its members, which we covered in the fewest major housing decisions since 1979. It found about 200,500 homes with valid permission that had not been started, and market demand was the second most common reason given, after viability. The two readings describe different stages. Barratt Redrow's is about sites it has yet to open, and the councils' is about sites already permitted.
Where a slower market meets the delivery test.
The Housing Delivery Test measures net homes delivered in each council area against homes required over three years. It counts homes built, not homes permitted. On the 2025 measurement, published on 17 August, 93 of the 301 authorities measured scored below 75%. Under the August 2026 framework, a score below 75% means an unmet need for housing is deemed to exist for the purposes of policy S5(1)(j), the route by which housing outside a settlement may be approved. We set out the results in the test results and the third that cannot refuse.
That gives the market a second route into planning. The test scores councils on completions, and on the findings of Letwin and the CMA, builders pace completions to sales. On that reasoning a slower sales rate would show up in later scores, and a score below 75% brings policy S5(1)(j) into play. Completions also depend on how many sites are open, which is the reason Barratt Redrow gave for its lower forecast.
The test looks back over three years. The 2025 scores cover 2022/23 to 2024/25, so a slower 2026 would feed into later measurements, not the one in force now.
What the figures do not show.
Rightmove's comparison is of homes listed on its own website, and it publishes the comparison rather than the number.
The lenders' survey records lenders' answers, weighted by their share of the market. It is not a count of refused applications.
The housebuilders' rates cover the summer. Rightmove's and RICS's figures are more recent.
The official count of completed sales runs well behind. HM Revenue and Customs put UK residential transactions in August at 95,220, seasonally adjusted, 2% fewer than a year earlier. It notes that completions come "on average two to four months after an initial offer is made on a property", and that the figures "do not necessarily represent the current strength of the property market".
What to watch.
The government said the details of Your First Home would be confirmed at the Budget on 28 October. Rightmove's release said some first-time buyers "may also be waiting for more detail" on the scheme. Berkeley said in September that "some buyers may defer transactions until after the Budget at the end of October and any election uncertainty dissipates". We cover the Budget in a separate piece.
HM Revenue and Customs publishes September's transactions on 30 October. The Bank's next decisions on Bank Rate are due on 5 November and 17 December. The Bank's next survey of lenders will show whether the rise in demand they expected for the autumn arrived.
Sources: Rightmove, House Price Index, 19 October 2026, release and web tables; RICS, UK Residential Market Survey, September 2026, 8 October 2026; Nationwide, House Price Index, September 2026; Office for National Statistics and HM Land Registry, UK House Price Index, August 2026; Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, September 2026; Bank of England, statistical database, series IUDBEDR, IUMBV34, IUMB482 and LPMVTVX; Bank of England, Credit Conditions Survey 2026 Q3, 8 October 2026, and annex; Bank of England, upcoming MPC dates; Financial Conduct Authority Handbook, MCOB 11.6.2R; Taylor Wimpey plc, Half year results 2026, 31 July 2026; Persimmon plc, Half year results, 6 August 2026; Barratt Redrow plc, Full year results, 16 September 2026; Vistry Group plc, Half year results, 24 September 2026; Berkeley Group Holdings plc, trading statement, 11 September 2026; Local Councils Network, survey of members, March 2026; MHCLG, Housing Delivery Test: 2025 measurement, 17 August 2026; MHCLG, National Planning Policy Framework, August 2026, policy S5 and Annex D; HM Revenue and Customs, UK monthly property transactions, 30 September 2026; Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, New first-time buyer scheme to be confirmed at Budget, 26 September 2026.